Market Commentary
Big Numbers, Big Expectations: Three Keys to Earnings Season
October 26, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines three keys to earnings season: broader profit growth, margin pressures, and high expectations amid continued AI investment.
Moats vs. Inertia: Unpacking the Personal AI Agent Threat
October 19, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines how personal AI agents may disrupt businesses that rely on consumer inertia while leaving strong competitive moats intact.
Credit Is Still Flowing, and Businesses Are Borrowing
October 12, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines resilient business lending, narrowing credit spreads, and a housing market constrained by the growing mortgage rate lock-in effect.
Credit Is Still Flowing, and Businesses Are Borrowing
October 12, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines resilient business lending, narrowing credit spreads, and a housing market constrained by the growing mortgage rate lock-in effect.
The Debt Math, Explained
October 5, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines rising government debt costs, Treasury market stress, and what investors should watch as higher rates reshape the fiscal outlook.
Stock Market’s Wall of Worry Gets Taller
September 28, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores how geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates, and AI investment are adding to the stock market’s wall of worry.
What's Holding Up Record Margins?
September 21, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes S&P 500 margin expansion, assessing how much is structural versus cyclical and what that means for future earnings forecasts.
What History Says About Fed Hikes and Stocks
September 14, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research reveals what past rate-hike cycles can teach investors and why today's market backdrop remains supportive.
Signs Point to a Normalization, Not a Crisis
September 8, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes rising U.S. debt, Treasury yields, and fiscal trends, highlighting implications for markets and investors.
The Cash Flow Case for Value
August 31, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores why value stocks are outperforming, how free cash flow drives returns, and the impact of AI spending on markets.
Stock Market Tug of War: Earnings vs. Rates
August 24, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores how strong earnings growth, AI-driven profits, and rising estimates are supporting stocks despite pressure from higher interest rates.
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
August 17, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores shifting global growth leadership, cooling emerging markets, Fed policy expectations, and foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Municipal Bond Outlook: Why Carry Is the Strategy
August 10, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research outlines how a Fed on hold, strong reinvestment demand, and elevated yields create compelling opportunities in municipal bonds.
Constructive on Stocks in the Second Half as AI Debate Continues
August 3, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research highlights strong corporate earnings, AI-driven growth, and a favorable equity outlook while monitoring inflation, oil prices, and risks.
Can Hyperscalers Earn Their AI Ambitions?
July 27, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores whether hyperscalers can generate attractive returns on massive AI investments through a framework focused on ROIC, growth, and capex.
China Holds Keys to Post-War Oil Prices
July 20, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.
Keep Calm and Clip Coupons
July 13, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.
Has Stock Market Exuberance Become Irrational?
June 29, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines current market and investor sentiment in an effort to gauge current levels of exuberance.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
June 22, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines Warsh’s evolving Fed approach, infrastructure-led growth, and the impact of China demand on oil prices.
Introducing the IPO Class of 2026
June 15, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research the IPO process, reviews high-profile candidates, and provides context on potential market impacts.
Is Bad News Already Priced into the Bond Market?
June 8, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes bond markets as yields rise, exploring Fed policy expectations, inflation trends, and whether bad news is already priced into Treasuries.
Add Context, and Stock Market Valuations are Fair
June 1, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research analyzes stock valuations, finding them fair given growth, rates, inflation, and AI-driven earnings outlook despite risks.
Energy Shock Expected to Hit Prices Harder Than the Economy
May 18, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines rising inflation risks amid geopolitical tensions, while resilient growth and strong investment support continued expansion.
A New Fed Regime: Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences
May 11, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.
AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom
May 4, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines overlooked tech growth, assessing strong earnings, AI skepticism, and valuation opportunities for investors.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
April 27, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research assesses the case for an American Industrial Renaissance, focusing on manufacturing investment, supply‑chain resilience, and energy costs.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
April 20, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
April 13, 2026 | LPL Research
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Don’t forget, behind today’s headlines, the economy is still dealing with negative trade and immigration shocks and a positive artificial intelligence (AI) shock.
Lessons From Past Conflicts for Today’s Stock Market
April 6, 2026 | LPL Research
As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong. Improved valuations, the strong earnings outlook, and a still-normal level of volatility suggest the risk‑reward backdrop for stocks is getting more favorable. That said, we don’t have market capitulation signals flashing (washed-out selling), nor do we have any more clarity on how the Strait of Hormuz opens up. For now, we believe the best course of action for investors is to be patient and wait for a better entry point to add equity risk.
Earnings Likely to Grow Double-Digits Again; Will Markets Care?
March 30, 2026 | LPL Research
Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.
Private Credit Under Pressure: Liquidity Mismatches in an AI-Disrupted Cycle
March 23, 2026 | LPL Research
Corporate credit markets have become unsettled about the potential for advanced agentic AI tools from firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI to automate functions across legal, analytical, marketing, and sales workflows, effectively targeting the software as a service (SaaS)/enterprise software space.
Why Oil Prices Matter Less — But Still Move Headline Inflation
March 16, 2026 | LPL Research
Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example.
Markets Tested as Iran Conflict Continues
March 9, 2026 | LPL Research
It’s difficult to separate the human and emotional side of war from the economic and market impacts. Without minimizing the human element, we focus on markets here. From that perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis will affect markets globally. Oil and natural gas production and transit have already been disrupted, sending prices sharply higher. If these disruptions are severe and long lasting, they have the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes, all of which will likely translate into lower stock prices. Simply put, the more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact.