Market Commentary
Energy Shock Expected to Hit Prices Harder Than the Economy
May 18, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines rising inflation risks amid geopolitical tensions, while resilient growth and strong investment support continued expansion.
A New Fed Regime: Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences
May 11, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.
AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom
May 4, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines overlooked tech growth, assessing strong earnings, AI skepticism, and valuation opportunities for investors.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
April 27, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research assesses the case for an American Industrial Renaissance, focusing on manufacturing investment, supply‑chain resilience, and energy costs.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
April 20, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
April 13, 2026 | LPL Research
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Don’t forget, behind today’s headlines, the economy is still dealing with negative trade and immigration shocks and a positive artificial intelligence (AI) shock.
Lessons From Past Conflicts for Today’s Stock Market
April 6, 2026 | LPL Research
As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong. Improved valuations, the strong earnings outlook, and a still-normal level of volatility suggest the risk‑reward backdrop for stocks is getting more favorable. That said, we don’t have market capitulation signals flashing (washed-out selling), nor do we have any more clarity on how the Strait of Hormuz opens up. For now, we believe the best course of action for investors is to be patient and wait for a better entry point to add equity risk.
Earnings Likely to Grow Double-Digits Again; Will Markets Care?
March 30, 2026 | LPL Research
Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.
Private Credit Under Pressure: Liquidity Mismatches in an AI-Disrupted Cycle
March 23, 2026 | LPL Research
Corporate credit markets have become unsettled about the potential for advanced agentic AI tools from firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI to automate functions across legal, analytical, marketing, and sales workflows, effectively targeting the software as a service (SaaS)/enterprise software space.
Why Oil Prices Matter Less — But Still Move Headline Inflation
March 16, 2026 | LPL Research
Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example.
Markets Tested as Iran Conflict Continues
March 9, 2026 | LPL Research
It’s difficult to separate the human and emotional side of war from the economic and market impacts. Without minimizing the human element, we focus on markets here. From that perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis will affect markets globally. Oil and natural gas production and transit have already been disrupted, sending prices sharply higher. If these disruptions are severe and long lasting, they have the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes, all of which will likely translate into lower stock prices. Simply put, the more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact.
How LPL Research Thinks About Dividends
March 2, 2026 | LPL Research
The idea of lying on the beach while your money works for you is often idealized in the financial media and by financial professionals alike. And why not? Investors love passive income, whether it comes from interest payments via fixed income securities, rental income from a real estate investment, or dividends from a stock portfolio. Our focus is on dividends, and understanding different approaches investors can incorporate into equity allocations. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we analyze different equity income strategies, explain why we believe incorporating quality makes sense, and review technical charts to understand what’s potentially on the horizon for the near-term performance of different equity income strategies.